Weekly Series: mREIT And BDC Recommendations (And Price Targets) As Of 09/14/2025

Summary

• Scott and Michael bought shares of BXSL on Thursday.
• All tools are now using ADAM as the new ticker for NYMT.
• NAV’s were stable. Modestly up on average. Share prices were moderately down. 7 common shares landed upgrades as a result of prices falling with book value flat or higher.

In the exclusive section for full members:

• All of the current ratings and price targets, as we do each time we publish this article.
• The REIT Forum’s Q2 2025 estimates by Scott Kennedy for earnings and book values or net asset values.
• Tables comparing results to projections.
• The dividend projections for each mREIT and BDC for Q3 2025.

We aim to retain the same layout from week to week. I hope that makes it easier to find the parts that are most relevant to you.

Weekly Notes From Colorado Wealth Management Fund

Positions: 1 trade over the last week. I followed Scott into Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL). This is still a small position for me. It represents 0.39% of my portfolio.

Commentary: 

The sheets have been updated for ADAM (formerly NYMT) using new tickers for common shares, preferred shares, and baby bonds. The preferred shares and baby bonds followed a reasonable naming convention where every instance of “NYMT” was replaced with “ADAM”. Therefore, for instance, NYMTL became ADAML. The Dividend Portfolio Tracker tool doesn’t have these updates in yet, but all the google sheets we’re using to provide our analysis have already been updated.

Prices dipped across most of the sector. That’s a bit interesting because book values were up. The following numbers are not weighted for the size of the company:

• For BDCs: the average projected change in BV was +0.2% while prices were down 1.3%.
• For mortgage REITs: the average projected change in BV was +0.5% while prices were down 2.1%.

The only mortgage REIT where the price increased was Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI), but the projected change in book value per share was similar for them compared to the rest of the agency mortgage REITs. A tiny bit better than average, but not substantially better. The agency mortgage REIT subsector averaged +1.1% for the change in estimated book value and CHMI had a projected change of +1.4%. 

Scott’s Ultra-Brief Summary

“Another fairly quiet week for BDC NAVs. Another fairly positive week for mREIT BVs as a whole. Slightly larger projected gains for the agency mREITs as a whole versus the other 3 sub-sectors again.”

Weekly Notes From Scott Kennedy

Positions: 1 trade over the past week.

On 9/11/2025, as previously telegraphed in discord chat on 9/10/2025, I increased my position in BXSL at a weighted average purchase price of $28.50 per share (via a limit order). BXSL currently has decent/good - very good value. If the price drops further, I will likely accumulate a larger position over time (next leg likely $27.50 per share).  

In general, I am being patient regarding selectively deploying capital in attractively-valued mREIT common stocks with a less attractive risk/performance rating.  My sector allocation to mREIT common stocks remains high (thus aligning with continuing to hold existing positions and selectively adding for future appreciation over the long-term).  Patience remains key as catalysts/events will take time to play out (especially within commercial/multifamily mREITs).  I will continue to remain disciplined regarding “picking and choosing” investments and lot sizes.

BDC Weekly Change: For the 3rd straight week, high yield/speculative-grade credit spreads were relatively unchanged.   As of mid September 2025, we have continued to see a decent retracement in high yield/speculative-grade credit spreads after a very volatile April 2025.  This is mainly due to continued optimism regarding tariff negotiations and semi-attractive economic data (inflation remaining fairly subdued, relatively flat unemployment rate, etc…).  Spreads remain relatively unchanged during calendar Q3 2025 (through 9/12/2025).  

BDC Other Comments (Current Week):

I will continue to monitor Middle East and Russia/Ukraine geopolitical tensions and monitor impacts in high yield/speculative grade markets as new events unfold.  I continue to not anticipate any material/notable direct impacts to the BDC sector from these events.  I am also monitoring all ongoing tariff updates and their impacts to each BDC’s underlying portfolio companies via weekly credit research. As is always the case, I will continue to monitor upcoming U.S. economic data/monetary policy and each event’s impact to the BDC sector.    

Calendar Q1 2025 + Q2 2025 + Q3 2025 Recommendation/Target Range + Risk/Performance Upgrades (Downgrades) (Running Tally):