Weekly Series: mREIT And BDC Recommendations (And Price Targets) As Of 08/17/2025
Summary
- No trades for either analyst.
- Earnings season is done. We’re still publishing some updates. I’ll have an update on housing REITs soon (apartments and manufactured home parks).
- Thus far Q3 2025 has been relatively quiet, especially compared to Q2 2025.
In the exclusive section for full members:
- All of the current ratings and price targets, as we do each time we publish this article.
- The REIT Forum’s Q2 2025 estimates by Scott Kennedy for earnings and book values or net asset values.
- Tables comparing results to projections.
- The dividend projections for each mREIT and BDC for Q3 2025.
We aim to retain the same layout from week to week. I hope that makes it easier to find the parts that are most relevant to you.
Weekly Notes From Colorado Wealth Management Fund
Positions: 0 trades last week.
Commentary: Update coming on the housing REITs. We’ve seen quite a bit of pressure in the sector recently. There’s no reason to panic though. We’re simply seeing some better valuations. Our valuation range for the sector has been far more stable than the share prices. The one housing REIT that’s really outperformed so far this year is Sun Communities (SUI). That’s also been our largest position in housing REITs, so it’s nice to see.
We will probably be performing an update on the back end of the website within the next month. When we do it, the site may be down for up to an hour. Before we run that update, I'll send out an email and it will be scheduled outside of normal markets.
Scott’s Ultra-Brief Summary
“Another quiet week for both mREIT BVs + BDC NAVs (outside applicable earnings-related adjustments). Much "quieter" so far during Q3 2025 versus Q2 2025 regarding BV/NAV movements. We will be skipping the weekly article for Labor Day Weekend (2 weeks away, as we do some holiday weekends).”
Weekly Notes From Scott Kennedy
Positions: 0 trades over the past week.
In general, I am being patient regarding selectively deploying capital in attractively-valued mREIT common stocks with a less attractive risk/performance rating. My sector allocation to mREIT common stocks remains high (thus aligning with continuing to hold existing positions and selectively adding for future appreciation over the long-term). Patience remains key as catalysts/events will take time to play out (especially within commercial/multifamily mREITs). I will continue to remain disciplined regarding “picking and choosing” investments and lot sizes.
BDC Weekly Change: This past week, high yield/speculative-grade credit spreads were relatively unchanged. As of mid August 2025, we have continued to see a decent retracement in high yield/speculative-grade credit spreads after a very volatile April 2025. This is mainly due to continued optimism regarding tariff negotiations and semi-attractive economic data (inflation remaining fairly subdued, relatively flat unemployment rate, etc…). Spreads remain relatively unchanged during calendar Q3 2025 (through 8/15/2025).
BDC Other Comments (Current Week):
I will continue to monitor fairly recent Middle East and Russia/Ukraine geopolitical tensions and monitor impacts in high yield/speculative grade markets as new events unfold. I continue to not anticipate any material/notable direct impacts to the BDC sector from these events. I am also monitoring all ongoing tariff updates and their impacts to each BDC’s underlying portfolio companies via weekly credit research. As is always the case, I will continue to monitor upcoming U.S. economic data/monetary policy and each event’s impact to the BDC sector.
Calendar Q1 2025 + Q2 2025 + Q3 2025 Recommendation/Target Range + Risk/Performance Upgrades (Downgrades) (Running Tally):
Underlying Portfolio Company Credit Changes Held by BDCs (Weekly): 2 downgrades, 0 upgrades
Underlying Portfolio Company Credit Changes Held by BDCs (Quarter-to-Date):
This is a running tally of the credit upgrades and downgrades for companies held by each BDC (Bolded Indicates Current Week Change).
