Weekly Series: mREIT And BDC Recommendations (And Price Targets) As Of 07/27/2025

Summary

• No trades by either analyst. Calling out upcoming dates / times for earnings announcements.
• Brief note regarding an announcement from Ready Capital. See “Scott’s Ultra-Brief Summary” section near the top.

In the exclusive section for full members:

• All of the current ratings and price targets, as we do each time we publish this article.
• The Q2 2025 estimates for earnings and book values (or net asset values for BDCs).
• Comparison of results announced so far relative to our projections and consensus projections.
• The dividend projections for each mREIT and BDC for Q3 2025.

We aim to retain the same layout from week to week. I hope that makes it easier to find the parts that are most relevant to you.

Weekly Notes From Colorado Wealth Management Fund

Positions: 0 trades this last week.

Commentary: Crown Castle International (CCI) reported last week. I’ll provide an earnings update on them soon. 

Big equity REIT earnings announcements coming up this week:

• Tuesday Pre-Market Open: American Tower (AMT). Conference call at 8:30 a.m. same day.
• Wednesday Post-Market Close: Sun Communities (SUI). Conference call on Thursday after the close. Yes, 24 hours later.

Scott’s Ultra-Brief Summary

“Another fairly quiet week for both mREIT BVs + BDC NAVs (outside applicable earnings-related adjustments). If anything, a very slight - slight increase in a majority of mREIT BVs. I updated my typical upcoming weekly earnings report dates for both sectors near the top of the text. I also included a very brief snippet regarding the news RC "officially" took possession of the Portland, OR mixed-use property (not a surprise; already anticipated for a couple months now). It will be another pretty busy upcoming week on my end with earnings.”

Note: This is the addition regarding Ready Capital:

“On 7/22/2025, RC announced the company has officially taken possession of/”secured ownership” of the aforementioned Portland, OR mixed-used property.  This was NOT a surprise.  RC will manage the property with a partnership with the Lincoln Property Company (Lincoln).  A partnership with a property manager was anticipated.  Marriott International (parent of the Ritz-Carton brand) will continue to run the hotel operations (also as anticipated).”

Weekly Notes From Scott Kennedy

Positions: 0 trades over the past week.    

In general, I am being patient regarding selectively deploying capital in attractively-valued mREIT common stocks with a less attractive risk/performance rating.  My sector allocation to mREIT common stocks remains high (thus aligning with continuing to hold existing positions and selectively adding for future appreciation over the long-term).  Patience remains key as catalysts/events will take time to play out (especially within commercial/multifamily mREITs).  I will continue to remain disciplined regarding “picking and choosing” investments and lot sizes.

Next Week Earnings Report Dates for All Covered mREIT and BDC Stocks:

• Monday Pre-Market Open: RITM
• Monday Post-Market Close: TWO
• Tuesday Pre-Market Open: ARCC
• Wednesday Pre-Market Open: BXMT
• Wednesday Post-Market Close: NYMT, FBRT, TSLX
• Friday Pre-Market Open: MITT

Out of the stocks listed above, RITM and TWO will likely have an earnings assessment article provided Monday night.  ARCC will likely have an earnings assessment article provided Tuesday night. BXMT and NYMT will likely have an earnings assessment article provided Wednesday night.  TSLX and FBRT will likely have an earnings assessment article provided Thursday night.  MITT will likely have an earnings assessment article provided Friday night.  Regarding TSLX and FBRT, I will quickly review top-line metrics and make any necessary “true-up (down)” CURRENT BV/NAV adjustments the night of earnings which will be shown in the subscriber spreadsheets (prior to an earnings assessment article).

BDC Weekly Change: For the 3rd straight week, high yield/speculative-grade credit spreads were relatively unchanged.  If anything, very slight tightening.  Weekly jobless claims (economic indicator) came in largely as anticipated by markets.  As of late July 2025, we have continued to see a decent retracement in high yield/speculative-grade credit spreads after a very volatile April 2025.  This is mainly due to continued optimism regarding tariff negotiations and semi-attractive economic data (inflation remaining fairly subdued, relatively flat unemployment rate, etc…).  Spreads have very slightly tightened during calendar Q3 2025 (through 7/25/2025).  

BDC Other Comments (Current Week):

I will continue to monitor fairly recent Middle East geopolitical tensions and monitor impacts in high yield/speculative grade markets as new events unfold.  I continue to not anticipate any material/notable direct impacts to the BDC sector from these events.  I am also monitoring all ongoing tariff updates and their impacts to each BDC’s underlying portfolio companies via weekly credit research. As is always the case, I will continue to monitor upcoming U.S. economic data/monetary policy and each event’s impact to the BDC sector.    

Calendar Q1 2025 + Q2 2025 + Q3 2025 Recommendation/Target Range + Risk/Performance Upgrades (Downgrades) (Running Tally):