SLRC & MFA Q3 2023 Updates By Scott Kennedy
Introduction section by Colorado Wealth Management Fund.
Article section by Scott Kennedy.
Bringing More of Scott’s Work to Our Website
The REIT Forum is a service produced by Michael Vanloon (better known as Colorado Wealth Management Fund) and Scott Kennedy. After intense consideration, I decided to launch our service through Substack. Since then, we’ve seen great success. Substack enables us to give readers real-time alerts with entire articles delivered directly to their inboxes.
You’re probably used to seeing the “from” field saying: “ColoradoWealthManagementFund from The REIT Forum”.
In some of our future e-mails, it may say:
“Scott Kennedy from The REIT Forum”.
That will simply mean we’ve updated the backend of the website for Scott Kennedy to directly post his articles.
I want to make browsing our work as simple as possible for readers. This will be another step in that direction.
For the moment, I’ll be posting Scott’s work. The following articles are a direct copy and paste from Scott. While we get the back end set up, there is a delay in getting the articles posted. Rest assured that it should be solved soon.
Finding Our Positions
I posted a subscriber-exclusive article with links to our Google Sheets. You can always access our positions there. Scott’s positions are updated each week. CWMF’s positions are usually updated on the same day as the trade.
Related to the stocks in this article:
CWMF is long: RITM-D, GPMT-A, DX-C, EFC-A, MFA-C, RITM-C, EFC-B, PMT-C, PMT-B, CIM-B, AGNCP, CIM-D, RITM, SLRC, MFA, GPMT, RC.
Scott Kennedy is long: RITM, RC, SLRC, GPMT, ARCC, TSLX, FSK, MFA, RITM-D, MITT-B, MITT-C, GAINL, RCB, ECCC, ECCW.
The rest of this post is from Scott Kennedy.
This 17th earnings assessment article reviews SLRC’s and MFA’s NAV/BV and NII/core earnings performance during Q3 2023.
This article also discusses how SLRC’s and MFA’s quarterly change in NAV/BV and NII/core earnings “matched up” to expectations. Earnings remain a key driver to stock performance.
SLRC’s NAV was a very minor-minor outperformance while its NII matched my/our expectations. MFA’s BV was a minor underperformance while its core earnings was a modest outperformance.
No change in SLRC’s and MFA’s percentage recommendation ranges or risk rating. SLRC and MFA are currently deemed undervalued (BUY).
Overall, SLRC reported a good quarter. If MFA and/or SLRC moved back into our notably undervalued (STRONG BUY) recommendation range, I will personally increase my existing position(s).
Hi subscribers. For new members, my name is Scott Kennedy and currently I fully cover 20 mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) and 15 business development company (“BDC”) common stocks within this Investing Group regarding research/data, subscriber questions, weekly projected book values/net asset values (BV/NAV), and common stock recommendation ranges. Colorado (“CO”) Wealth Management handles the mREIT preferred stocks and he and his team handles all other applicable REIT sectors outside the mREIT sector. CO also provides some mREIT common stock and BDC articles from time-to-time which are more of an “overview/introduction” discussion; typically based either on my or our combined research/data. This also includes some macroeconomic trends and data. My name is always attached to all Investing Group articles I personally wrote so there is no confusion for subscribers.
This REIT Forum article is part of a series of articles over a span of 6-7 weeks which will analyze my previously projected BV/NAV and core earnings (or core earnings equivalent)/net investment income (“NII”) figures and compare these metrics to each mREIT’s and BDC’s actual reported results, respectively. For readers who are familiar with my public mREIT and/or BDC articles, these types of articles are beneficial to readers who desire to pursue a more active investing strategy and/or want more “real time” thoughts/analysis.
I hope my services/contributions ultimately help enhance a subscriber’s total investment returns or minimize their total investment losses within the mREIT and BDC sectors. At the very least, I hope subscribers will gain more insight into the mREIT and BDC sectors by reading my/our exclusive REIT Forum articles.
1) SLRC’s NAV and NII Q3 2023 Performance (Projected Versus Actual Results):
On 11/7/2023, SLRC Investment Corp. (SLRC) reported the company’s earnings results for the third quarter of 2023. Table 1 below provides SLRC’s NAV and earnings summary.
Table 1 – SLRC Q3 2023 NAV and Earnings Summary
Source: Taken Directly from the REIT Forum’s © Analytical Spreadsheets/Data
Hi subscribers. I was able to review SLRC’s Q3 2023 earnings results in more depth. SLRC's Q3 2023 NII of $0.428 per share was basically an exact match versus my prior projection of $0.425 per share (range $0.400 - $0.450 per share). SLRC’s NII was $0.416 per share for the second quarter of 2023. As such, I projected an NII increase of $0.009 per share. In actuality, SLRC reported a NII increase of $0.012 per share. The institutional analysts’ consensus average for SLRC’s NII was $0.426 per share for the third quarter of 2023. Even though this was an extremely accurate projection, let us discuss SLRC’s NII performance.
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